James Madison vs. Virginia Odds, Picks & Predictions

James Madison vs. Virginia Odds

Saturday, Sept. 9

12 p.m. ET

ESPNU

James Madison Odds
Unfold	Whole	Moneyline
-6.5 -110	39.5 -105o / -115u	-250

Virginia Odds
Unfold	Whole	Moneyline
+6.5 -110	39.5 -105o / -115u	+190

After a blowout loss in Week 1 in opposition to Tennessee, the Virginia Cavaliers host the G5 darling James Madison Dukes in what would be the most emotional recreation of the season.

That is Virginia’s first house recreation since a mindless act of gun violence final fall claimed the lives of three Virginia gamers and ended the college’s soccer season prematurely. Being house underdogs to a smaller college in Virginia will solely add motivation on Saturday.

Sadly, the Cavaliers are underdogs for a purpose — the Dukes are a profitable program with actual benefits on the sphere at nearly each place.

Can the favorites overcome a feel-good narrative on the highway? 

Regardless of solely being in FBS soccer for a 12 months, first-half struggles on offense final week and the emotional benefit for the ‘Hoos, the Dukes are round a landing favourite after opening at -3.5. 

The rationale for that’s clear. The Dukes took FBS by storm final season, and despite the fact that they misplaced a couple of stars like defensive finish Isaac Ukwu and quarterback Todd Centeio, they nonetheless fared favorably in returning manufacturing metrics.

They return all 5 starters from a high quality offensive line, star nostril guard James Carpenter and the most effective linebacking duo within the Group of 5 (Jailin Walker and Taurus Jones).

Curt Cignetti instructions some of the constant applications in school soccer. James Madison has printed productive ability place gamers, and receiver Reggie Brown and sophomore operating again Kaelon Black are the most recent within the Dukes’ lineage.

The Dukes entered the season with a giant query of which participant would exchange Centeio at quarterback, and he left massive footwear to fill because the Solar Belt Offensive Participant of the Yr. 

Cignetti tabbed redshirt freshman Alonza Barnett III for the position after he wowed within the offseason along with his bodily presents and fast studying. He began final week in opposition to Bucknell and struggled mightily as a passer, as he accomplished simply 3-of-11 passes for 15 yards and an interception, leading to a poor 2.9 QBR.

Cignetti, who benched Barnett after halftime, in contrast his younger quarterback’s efficiency to a golfer with the yips.

Consequently, Jordan McCloud has taken over because the beginning quarterback, and like Centeio, he is a two-time switch seeking to end his profession beneath Cignetti’s sharp tutelage. McCloud was the favourite when fall camp opened, however Barnett’s athleticism received the job.

McCloud will begin in Charlottesville after finishing 7-of-11 passes for 144 yards and two touchdowns, which resulted in a formidable 91.4 QBR. He ought to proceed Cignetti’s glorious run of quarterback play, which started with Ben DiNucci then Cole Johnson and most lately Centeio. 

With McCloud at quarterback, Black (profession 6.0 yards per carry) and Brown main the ability positions and a high quality offensive line, the Dukes boast a robust and versatile offense.

Nevertheless, their protection could be even higher.

James Madison ranked eighth nationally in Invoice Connelly’s returning manufacturing metric for protection. Regardless of the lack of Ukwu to Ole Miss, there are stars at each degree. Carpenter is among the greatest particular person defenders within the Group of 5, and Jones and Walker match completely behind him. 

Final 12 months, the Dukes had been the most effective protection within the nation at stopping drives, rating first within the nation in Success Price Allowed. They had been weak in opposition to Explosive Performs, however Tony Elliott’s toothless offense struggled each to maneuver the ball constantly (97th in Success Price) and rapidly (eighty fifth in Explosive Performs).

Feelings shall be excessive in Charlottesville, as Virginia seems to ship a win and supply additional therapeutic for the group. Whereas the Cavaliers are at a deficit when analyzing the on-field matchup, it’s arduous to think about a extra emotional locker room. 

(Observe: These groups are shut, and James Madison gamers will definitely be affected emotionally, too. Each applications have many regional recruits with shared historical past.)

Virginia’s 2022 soccer season was a tricky one on the sphere, too, and final week’s 49-13 loss to Tennessee did not present a lot optimism. Regardless of Elliott’s historical past of coordinating robust offenses for Dabo Swinney at Clemson, the Virginia offense has been one of many worst Energy-5 models. 

Beginning quarterback Tony Muskett, a switch from FCS Monmouth, accomplished 9-of-17 passes for 94 yards earlier than injuring his shoulder — he’s a game-day resolution this week. True freshman Anthony Colandrea will begin if Muskett can’t go. 

Whoever is taking snaps is more likely to be beneath nonstop stress from Carpenter, Walker and the remainder of the Dukes’ protection. The Cavaliers returned simply 17 begins alongside their offensive line, and the unit obtained a poor 32.0 PFF Go Blocking Grade final week in opposition to Tennessee.

The Dukes have some considerations about defensive-end depth, however they’re stacked at different defensive positions and ought to be within the backfield all day. 

The excellent news for the Cavaliers is the protection is aggressive; if they’ve a path to an emotional win on Saturday, it’s by turning the sport right into a slog and profitable shut. The protection ranks 58th in SP+, and whereas this is not something to brag about for a Energy-5 staff, it is downright glowing in comparison with their 127th-ranked offense.

On the opposite facet, James Madison is an identical sixtieth in each offense and protection in SP+.

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Do you hunt down emotional spots and narratives and guess with the human issue concerned in your resolution? You may not have a greater spot all season than the Virginia moneyline.

The feelings of this second, the motivation for the staff, the anticipation of their return and the roar of the gang behind them will all look to spice up the Cavaliers. Nobody will blame you for bucking math and matchups on this recreation.

Are you a coldly analytical participant? The Dukes are favored by one landing, however SP+ makes it nearly two scores. James Madison is a profitable program with benefits within the trenches, teaching, ability positions and quarterback. 

The Dukes may also be motivated on this recreation as a result of it is an opportunity for a staff ineligible for a bowl recreation to beat an in-state Energy 5 program. 

It makes me really feel like a foul particular person, as if I’m spiting the faculty soccer gods, however I’ll lay the factors. There received’t be a dry eye in the home on Saturday in some of the vital video games of the season, however James Madison will finally draw back with the victory.