Win the Weekend: Fantasy football playoff notes, NFL and college bowl betting tips

December 23, 2023

Dec 22, 2023, 12:22 PM ET

Wish to know the newest traits, matchups and harm information in soccer? We have got you. Wish to know the place the general public has cash this week? We have got you. Wish to know which groups to play, whom to roster in DFS or whom to choose in your Eliminator pool? We have got you there, too. Here is every thing it is advisable to know as you put together on your fantasy soccer matchups and potential bets on the video games this weekend.

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Table of Contents

School soccer

Saban to McAfee: The Wolverines ‘current a variety of challenges’

Nick Saban breaks all the way down to Pat McAfee the Michigan Wolverines’ strengths and the way Alabama is making ready for his or her Rose Bowl matchup.

David Purdum’s Motion Report

Each School Soccer Playoff semifinals noticed a flicker of line motion this week. The road on the Rose Bowl between underdog Alabama and Michigan ticked up in favor of the Wolverines in a single day Tuesday. The purpose unfold grew from Michigan -1 to as excessive as -2.5 at some sportsbooks — regardless of the early betting being lopsided on the Crimson Tide. As of Thursday at DraftKings, 82% of the cash that had been wager on the Rose Bowl was on Alabama. The road on the Sugar Bowl between Washington and Texas moved barely towards the underdog Huskies this week, however solely briefly. A handful of sportsbooks moved from Longhorns -4 to -3.5 on Wednesday. Influential sportsbook Circa was holding at -3.5 as of Thursday morning, however the consensus line was again at Texas -4. DraftKings on Thursday was reporting 62% of the cash that had been wagered on the unfold was on Washington.
Keep watch over the climate forecast for Saturday’s Armed Forces Bowl between Air Power and James Madison in Fort Value, Texas. Thunderstorms and growing winds are within the forecast. The overall was sitting at 40.5 as of Thursday.

Seth Walder’s greatest edges from ESPN Analytics

Northern Illinois Huskies (+3) vs. Arkansas State Purple Wolves: More often than not when FPI has a significant distinction of opinion with the betting line throughout bowl season, it is as a result of there is a QB change the mannequin does not learn about. That is not the case right here. Although the disagreement is not large — FPI thinks the Huskies ought to be favored by 1 — it nonetheless exists. On a down-to-down, opponent-adjusted effectivity degree Northern Illinois ranks ninety fifth, simply forward of Arkansas State at 99th.

NFL

Why Lamar Jackson remains to be a top-5 QB vs. 49ers

Area Yates explains why Lamar Jackson remains to be a powerful fantasy play in Week 16.

Stephania Bell’s harm replace

Props That Pop

By Liz Loza and Daniel Dopp

Chase Brown OVER 27.5 speeding yards: The Bengals might need solely a 43% probability of creating the playoffs, however the Cincy Jungle has been resilient of late, profitable three straight. Coincidentally, that streak has coincided with Brown’s elevated position. The rookie has managed between seven and 9 carries (along with a complete of 5 purple zone touches) from Weeks 13 to fifteen. With contemporary legs and 4.3 pace, Brown may stun a Pittsburgh Steelers protection that gave up over 150 speeding yards to Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson final weekend. One other seven carries at 4.0 YPC would take the Illinois product over the above line. That appears greater than cheap. — Loza
Easton Stick OVER 0.5 interceptions: Stick hasn’t essentially performed poorly, however I do not suppose Week 15 is indicative of what we should always anticipate on a weekly foundation. He is preventing an uphill battle being a backup QB on a crew that simply fired its head coach, will not have its prime two pass-catchers (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams) and is getting 12.5 factors at dwelling! Yikes! There may be not a variety of confidence on this Chargers offense. The Payments have been up and down this season, however their playoff hopes are on the road and this crew ought to scent blood within the water towards a Chargers squad that has allowed the third-most factors within the NFL over the previous six weeks. And this Payments protection has stiffened up fairly a bit with 5 interceptions over the previous 4 video games whereas permitting solely 164 passing yards per sport, the second fewest over that span. So the Chargers are anticipated to be down and this cross protection has been on level throughout their playoff push. Count on Follow be compelled into throwing a bunch on this one, and that is a recipe for unhealthy choices if you’re enjoying catch-up. I am anticipating at the very least one in every of these passes to discover a Payments defensive participant, so I am taking the OVER on 0.5 interceptions. — Dopp
Terry McLaurin UNDER 51.5 receiving yards: I hate betting unders, particularly on a proficient participant coming off of a blow-up sport. Nevertheless, solely 48 of McLaurin’s 141 yards occurred with Sam Howell underneath middle. The opposite 93 (together with McLaurin’s third TD of the season and his first since Week 8) got here within the remaining eight minutes of rubbish time when Jacoby Brissett got here off the bench and added a much-needed spark to the offense. The truth is, McLaurin hadn’t managed greater than 50 receiving yards since Week 9. With Howell anticipated to start out on the street going through the New York Jets, McLaurin figures to be in for a combat. — Loza
Trey McBride OVER 5.5 receptions: McBride goes to be the lead singer of a brand new band Area Yates and I plan to start out this offseason known as Chasing Quantity. Not likely, however please try Fantasy Focus in case you’re into fantasy comedy podcasts! Again on observe, we’re definitely following the amount right here. Since Kyler Murray returned because the beginning QB for the Cardinals, McBride leads all tight ends with 38 receptions for 425 receiving yards. He is additionally seeing a 27.9% goal share over that span, once more topping the place. He has actually been the perfect tight finish within the league since Kyler’s return. This week he’ll face the Bears, who’ve allowed the Tenth-most receptions to the place over the previous six weeks (the identical timespan we’re for McBride’s time with Kyler). The Bears do not surrender a variety of yards to tight ends, however they do surrender 5.6 receptions per sport, so if that is their common output allowed towards the place, I’ll wager on the perfect tight finish over the previous six weeks to proceed to feast precisely like he has been. — Dopp
Jakobi Meyers OVER 37.5 receiving yards: First, a shoutout to Mike Clay’s Shadow Report for being superior. Test it out if you have not! One of many issues he has been highlighting this yr is the L’Jarius Sneed shadow. Each week Sneed principally shadows the opposite crew’s “finest” receiver, and due to that, secondary cross catchers within the offense have been capable of have some very nice video games. In Week 15, Hunter Henry had seven catches for 66 yards. In Week 14, Dalton Kincaid solely had 5 for 21, nevertheless it was on 9 targets! That was a troublesome break, however in Week 13, Sneed shadowed Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson went off for seven catches and 77 yards. In Week 12 towards this very Raiders crew, Meyers had six catches for 79 yards and a TD. This Chiefs protection has completed a superb job of limiting the No. 1 passing sport possibility this yr, nevertheless it’s virtually at all times creating alternatives for others within the passing sport. Meyers did it in Week 12 and others have continued the pattern, so we’re going proper again to it. — Dopp
Darren Waller OVER 3.5 receptions: Wan’Dale Robinson burned me final week, however right here I’m wagering on a Big once more in Week 16. Waller definitely did not “wow” in his return, changing 4 of six balls for 40 yards. However he additionally did not fully disappoint, displaying advantageous rapport with Tommy DeVito and (most significantly) staying wholesome. Moreover, his 43% snap share suggests an easing again in for the proficient tight finish. As 13.5-point underdogs at Philadelphia, Waller ought to see a good quantity of quantity. The Eagles have allowed the ninth-most catches to the place over the previous 4 weeks. Waller ought to reel in at the very least 4 balls on Christmas Day. — Loza

Matt Bowen’s matchups to use

Tyreek Hill/Miami Dolphins pre-snap motion vs. Dallas: The Cowboys play man protection on 64.9% of opponent dropbacks, probably the most within the league. Search for Mike McDaniel to deploy Hill on pre-snap movement and motion to get him free entry off the ball, which is able to enable him to assault protection leverage. On performs with movement this season, Hill has caught 9 landing passes.
Justin Fields’ speeding manufacturing on designed carries vs. Arizona: Fields has rushed for 231 yards — with 9 carries of 10 yards or extra — on designed speeding makes an attempt this season. I anticipate the Bears to deploy Fields as a runner extra this Sunday, getting him to the perimeter, towards a Cardinals protection permitting 4.5 yards per carry this season, the eighth most within the league.
For extra breakdowns, try Matt Bowen’s Movie Room.

Mike Clay’s Eliminator Problem recommendation

Al Zeidenfeld’s DFS performs

It is a shorter slate than common this Sunday on DraftKings due to the a number of Saturday and Monday video games. That does not imply there aren’t methods for us to assault on Christmas Eve, and the Bears stack with Justin Fields ($6,900) and DJ Moore ($6,900) seem like a incredible place to start out with their large upside, and there is a incredible correlation piece on Arizona in Trey McBride ($5,700) within the hopes that the sport goes over the full and shoots out. The deepest worth place is, as at all times, operating again, with Ty Chandler ($5,600), Bijan Robinson ($6,300) and Chuba Hubbard ($5,700) main the way in which from a projectable factors per greenback foundation.
Extra DFS performs right here.