• Guess Commanders-Bears over 44.5: The Commanders took the Eagles to additional time in Week 4, whereas the Bears seemed good (till they did not) in Denver. The struggling defenses make this a reachable complete, and these groups have six mixed overs this season.
• Terry McLaurin breakout recreation? Sam Howell is beginning to discover his proficient menace on the skin, with the duo placing up their greatest recreation final week.
• Get forward of the sport: PFF’s Finest Bets Software makes use of PFF information to uncover the most important edges within the betting market. Click on right here to see the perfect bets for this week.
Estimated studying time: 10 minutes
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders (-6)
Matchup to observe: Bears TE Cole Kmet vs. Commanders S Kamren Curl
Whereas the Bears offense hasn’t seemed cohesive up thus far, Justin Fields has began to attach with Kmet. This previous week, they mixed for 85 yards and a pair of scores, good for an 84.4 receiving grade for the fourth-year tight finish. Curl shall be tasked with disrupting that movement this week, having performed properly in protection. The Commanders security has earned a 72.9 protection grade by 4 weeks.
Fantasy breakout: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin
Sam Howell is beginning to discover his proficient menace on the skin, with the duo placing up their greatest recreation final week. They related on a pair of performs over 15 yards, capitalizing on McLaurin’s big-play means. This week, McLaurin takes on a Bears secondary that’s coping with accidents to key items — Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) and Eddie Jackson (foot) — leaving rookie corners Tyrique Stevenson (53.2 protection grade) and Terell Smith (54.0) in important roles. Howell needs to be seeing loads of separation when he seems to be McLaurin’s method.
Favourite guess: Over 44.5
Each of those defenses have struggled to cease opposing offenses from filling up the scoreboard, as each groups are permitting over 30 factors per recreation. These groups have began to search out some footing on offense, too: The Commanders took the Eagles to additional time in Week 4, whereas the Bears seemed good (till they did not) in Denver. The struggling defenses make this a reachable complete, and these groups have six mixed overs this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Payments (-5.5)
Matchup to observe: Jaguars Edge Josh Allen vs. Payments LT Dion Dawkins
Josh Allen vs. Josh Allen is all the time a subject when these groups meet, however it’s the matchup with Dawkins that everybody ought to watch. Allen had the perfect pass-rushing day of his season in Week 4, netting three sacks and a 21.4% pass-rush win price to complete with a 91.0 pass-rush grade. Dawkins has allowed not more than two pressures in any recreation this season, along with his 80.2 pass-blocking a top-15 mark amongst tackles.
Fantasy fade: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence
This week, Lawrence faces a Payments protection firing on all cylinders. The Payments lead the league in a number of protection metrics, together with interceptions (8), protection sacks and compelled throwaways (17) and the fewest open targets allowed (57). For sure, separation shall be laborious to return by for the Jags receiving corps on this one.
Favourite guess: Payments -5.5
The Jags are enjoying their second recreation in a row within the UK, and the discuss of their benefit there’ll discover its method into the narrative. Granted, they’re 2-1 towards the unfold within the U.Okay. since drafting Lawrence, however the Payments are a special beast. After Week 1, Buffalo slammed the fuel pedal on each side of the ball, averaging 41 factors per recreation whereas permitting simply 11 factors per recreation. The Payments don’t simply cowl spreads — they demolish them. They boast a league-leading +16.5 level differential towards the unfold.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Matchup to observe: Titans LG Peter Skoronski vs. Colts DI Grover Stewart
Skoronski (appendix) is slated to return this week after lacking the final three video games. He was an adept run-blocker in his debut, incomes a optimistic grade on 25% of his snaps. However he could have his fingers towards Stewart, who has been unbelievable at monitoring down ball carriers within the backfield, totaling probably the most tackles for loss or no achieve on the place (6).
Fantasy breakout: Colts QB Anthony Richardson
Richardson has skilled rising pains, however this week is a superb alternative for him to make strides. The Titans have struggled towards the go this season, however they’ve seemed significantly susceptible on the highway. Derek Carr and Deshaun Watson each managed their greatest passing days of the season once they hosted the Titans. Richardson might not attain the 300-yard mark, however he needs to be in for an enormous day.
Favourite guess: Colts +1.5
This line opened with the Colts as slight favorites however shortly noticed them swing to residence canine. Jonathan Taylor returned to follow this week, and whereas there may be rivalry between him and the franchise, the potential of their greatest participant returning to the lineup is encouraging.
Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2)
Matchup to observe: Falcons Inside OL vs. Houston Inside DL
It’s an enormous week to showcase operating video games across the league, and whereas this isn’t a participant vs. participant matchup, it does function a large mismatch between inside models. The Falcons haven’t fairly put up the bottom manufacturing they’ve turn out to be accustomed to, however this shall be a “get proper” recreation for them. Drew Dalman (87.8 run-blocking grade) and Chris Lindstrom (82.3) shall be tasked with transferring Sheldon Rankins (29.6 run-defense grade) and Maliek Collins (27.7), who’ve struggled mightily towards the run.
Fantasy breakout: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson
Driving off the evaluation above, Robinson needs to be poised for an enormous day on the bottom. The Texans’ struggles towards the run aren’t restricted to the inside, as they’ve had points in any respect ranges of the protection. They rank final in group run-defense grade (34.6) and thirty first in anticipated factors added (EPA) allowed per rush. Houston’s grading distribution on run snaps is troubling, as they’ve earned a adverse grade on over 70% of performs.
Favourite guess: Texans +2
The Falcons ought to be capable of get the operating recreation going right here, however the Texans have proved that they will preserve video games shut and sometimes preserve leads. The Texans are coming off two of their greatest wins in years after taking down the Jags and Steelers by a number of scores. Alternatively, the Falcons have been largely ineffective on offense in current weeks, scoring 7 or much less of their final two. Whereas these got here on the highway, the Falcons look to have extra questions past the run recreation.
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions (-10)
Matchup to observe: Panthers Edge Brian Burns vs. Lions RT Penei Sewell
Sewell has been one of the constant pass-blockers within the NFL since moving into the league, and now he’s off to the perfect begin of his younger profession. In 4 video games, he’s allowed simply three pressures and earned an 82.6 pass-blocking grade. Carolina’s go rush has struggled to generate stress — simply 55, the fewest within the NFL this season — and will use a lift from Burns.
Fantasy breakout: Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
It isn’t as a lot a breakout as an affirmation of St. Brown’s incoming monster week. The dynamic menace is amid one other nice season, and he faces a good matchup in Week 5. Per PFF’s WR/CB matchup software, St. Brown has the very best matchup ranking of any receiver within the league this week. Carolina’s protection might enable the sixth-fewest fantasy factors to receivers, however they haven’t managed to grade properly. Donte Jackson (53.5 protection grade) and C.J. Henderson (52.0) could have their fingers full on the skin.
Favourite guess: Over 44.5
Carolina is the most important query on this recreation complete, contemplating how properly Detroit has performed on each side of the ball this yr. The Panthers protection is permitting over 30 factors per recreation on the highway this season, and the Lions offense seems to be poised to make the most of that. Offensively, the Panthers face questions of manufacturing, scoring simply over 13 factors per recreation with Bryce Younger underneath heart. Detroit will definitely do the heavy lifting with this complete, and in the long run, Carolina’s restricted manufacturing needs to be simply sufficient to surpass an affordable complete like 44.5.
Baltimore Ravens (-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Matchup to observe: Steelers Edge Alex Highsmith vs. Ravens LT Ronnie Stanley
Stanley is projected to return to the lineup this week, per week after Patrick Mekari’s tough outing towards Myles Garrett by which he allowed a 20% stress price. The left deal with has been a unbelievable pass-blocker in his profession, grading above 82.0 in 5 seasons.
Fantasy fade: Steelers WR George Pickens
The league’s top-graded protection unit (89.9) is projected to get even stronger this week, with Marlon Humphrey set to return to the lineup. That’s an unlucky draw for Pickens, who has had combined outcomes this season. Final season, contested catches had been his energy, as he hauled in 62.5% of his contested targets. This yr, he hasn’t been so lucky, going 0-for-9 thus far. That received’t bode properly towards a nook with play energy like Humphrey.
Favourite guess: Below 38
Accidents have appeared to mar this divisional matchup in recent times, and so they might have an effect on this one, too. As talked about, the Ravens are returning key gamers to the lineup after a while off the sphere, however questions stay of how shortly they may get reacclimated. The Steelers are coping with their very own damage points underneath heart, as Kenny Pickett‘s knee damage will go away Mitchell Trubisky as their potential starter. These groups usually development towards unders — 5 of their final six ensuing as such — however accidents make this much more doubtless.
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots (-1)
Matchup to observe: Patriots CB J.C. Jackson vs. Saints WR Chris Olave
The Pats wasted no time filling the void left of their secondary after Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) went down for the yr, buying J.C. Jackson from the Chargers. Having performed on this system for 4 seasons — the perfect of his profession — Jackson ought to contribute instantly. In his return, he attracts a troublesome matchup with Olave, who boats an 80.0-plus PFF grade by 4 weeks. Sadly, questions on Derek Carr’s (shoulder) well being might influence this one, however in any other case, it will likely be one to observe.
Fantasy fade: Patriots RBs
Shocking to nobody, the Pats backfield continues to be a troublesome learn in 2023. Rhamondre Stevenson continues to outpace Ezekiel Elliott in carries (60 to 34), whereas the latter has been extra environment friendly (2.7 YPC to 4.1 YPC). But, Stevenson is way simpler within the passing recreation, conserving him on the sphere extra. And now take that learn and venture it towards a protection just like the Saints. New Orleans has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy factors to backs this season, largely as a result of spectacular play of Demario Davis (90.3 PFF grade) within the center.
Favourite guess: Below 40
Each franchises face troublesome questions surrounding their quarterback scenario and offense typically. The Pats had been pressured to take a seat Mac Jones within the second half this previous week, whereas Carr’s shoulder damage has already been touched on. Alternatively, the defenses have supplied these groups with a way of id, every slotting into the highest half of the league within the PFF energy rating. The traits verify this: these groups have gone over in simply 36% of their video games since 2022.
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins (-11)
Matchup to observe: Giants DI Dexter Lawrence vs. Dolphins C Connor Williams
The lone vivid spot on this Giants protection this season has been Lawrence, who has earned league-leading grades in each sides. He’s graded out because the third-best inside defender (91.1) and ranks properly above some other Giants defender. The Dolphins are hopeful to see the return of Williams, who has earned an 80.0 PFF grade to start out the season.
Fantasy breakout: Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle
Waddle shall be far an excessive amount of to deal with for the NFL’s sixth-lowest graded protection unit (58.4). The Giants blitz has typically put their secondary into a troublesome place, leading to a number of huge performs. They’ve allowed receptions of over 15 yards on practically 17% of their go performs, which doesn’t bode properly towards Waddle, who has not less than two in each recreation this yr.
Favourite guess: Dolphins Over 30.5
Contemplating the questions surrounding the Giants offense, 48.5 for the sport complete appears a contact excessive. However a group complete of 30.5 is completely doable for Miami. The Dolphins are placing up 37.5 factors per recreation, probably the most within the NFL, and whereas they might have stumbled towards the Payments, the Giants aren’t working on Buffalo’s degree defensively.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Matchup to observe: Rams DI Aaron Donald vs. Eagles RG Sua Opeta
The long run Corridor of Famer is dominating as standard. This previous week, he amassed 12 pass-rush wins, giving him a 25.7% win price on the yr, on tempo for the perfect mark of his profession. Sadly for the Eagles, it seems they are going to be with out Cam Jurgens and shall be tasking Opeta (55.7 offensive grade) with slowing down Donald.
Fantasy fade: Rams QB Matthew Stafford
Whereas the Rams offense has performed above expectation early this yr, this matchup doesn’t bode properly for L.A. The offensive line has been an issue this yr, having allowed the sixth-most pressures (65). That’s a demise sentence towards a rush like Philly’s, which racked up 32 pressures towards Washington. Towards stress, Stafford has a 40.4% completion price and only a 50.9 passing grade.
Favourite guess: Rams Below 23.5
This Rams offense appears to crumble if the road can’t operate, with Stafford’s metrics plummeting. They’ve struggled with scoring output this season when pressured, scoring underneath 24 towards groups that produce above 10 pressures. For sure, the Eagles can put that up in a mean half behind guys like Jalen Carter and Josh Sweat.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Matchup to observe: Cardinals HB James Conner vs. Bengals Entrance-7
James Conner has been the driving pressure behind the Playing cards’ offensive success this season. His 82.1 speeding grade ranks sixth within the NFL, and he has pressured 16 missed tackles. That ought to show a troublesome job for a Bengals protection that has struggled to cease the run and safe tackles. Cincy’s 51.6 run-defense grade ranks within the backside third of the league, whereas their 29 missed tackles are the second-most.
Fantasy breakout: Bengals HB Joe Mixon
Understandably, Joe Burrow’s (calf) damage has put this offense out of rhythm, and an added concentrate on the run recreation might assist to alleviate that. Mixon (71.4 rush grade) has put up respectable numbers, every week surpassing 55 yards on the bottom. The Cardinals protection presents a chance for the Bengals to check that philosophy shift, as Arizona possesses the Twenty fifth-ranked run protection (52.1) and permits the third-most fantasy factors to backs.
Favourite guess: Cardinals +3
Whereas everyone seems to be confused as to why the Bengals look as underwhelming as they’ve, it’s miles extra perplexing why oddsmakers proceed to put factors with them — particularly on the highway. Simply final week, they fell to 0-4 towards the unfold after dropping a 2.5-point line in Tennessee. Alternatively, the Cardinals proceed to overachieve regardless of their shortcomings, holding a 3-1 file towards the unfold. The Bengals have 6 complete factors on the highway this season. The Playing cards common 28 at residence.
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Matchup to observe: Broncos WR Marvin Mims Jr. vs. Jets CB D.J. Reed
Mims, one of many highest-graded rookies this season, has burst onto the scene as the subsequent deadly deep menace to provide defenses matches. His 6.21 yards per route run is the perfect within the league, although he is seen simply 11 targets. This week, he attracts D.J. Reed, the underrated piece throughout from Sauce Gardner. Whereas Reed has performed properly thus far, incomes a 74.0 protection grade, he has been prone to downfield passes, having allowed a 15-plus-yard catch in three of 4 video games this season.
Fantasy breakout: Jets RB Breece Corridor
Nothing has gone proper for Denver defensively this season, however the group has seemed extremely porous towards the run. They rank close to the underside of the league in a number of classes, starting from yards per carry (5.6) to touchdowns allowed (7), however probably the most alarming of which is their missed deal with numbers (40), which is over 11 greater than the subsequent worst group. That presents an enormous alternative for a man like Corridor, who has managed 6.5 yards per carry, with 94.3% of his yardage coming after contact.
Favourite guess: Over 43.5
The Jets managed to place collectively a high quality recreation final week towards Kansas Metropolis whereas taking steps offensively. Denver’s protection hasn’t given a lot indication that they will decelerate even struggling offenses proper now. If the Jets can attain into the 20-plus level vary, this recreation complete needs to be very attainable.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Matchup to observe: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie
Jefferson is on tempo to turn out to be the one receiver within the PFF period to earn a 90.0-plus receiving grade in every of his first 4 seasons. Whereas McDuffie has earned a superb 87.2 protection grade to start out the yr, this shall be his hardest job but. Anticipate them to do some battling down the sphere, with Jefferson main the NFL in performs over 15 yards (16), which McDuffie has allowed simply two of this season.
Fantasy fade: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
It isn’t a lot a fade as a “perhaps not his greatest outing” sort of matchup. The Vikings protection is probably the most blitz-heavy unit within the league, and so they play first rate protection behind it. Sometimes, that’s a non-issue for Mahomes, who’s often wonderful vs. the blitz, however he is grading within the 60s towards the blitz thus far. Granted, he has been the least-blitzed passer within the league thus far. This recreation shall be a superb check of that measure towards elevated blitz quantity.
Favourite guess: Over 52.5
PFF Greenline hardly ever leans over with recreation totals that attain as excessive as this one, however right here, the mannequin initiatives into 53. Pair that with the truth that 95% of cash and 94% of tickets additionally fall on the over, and the consensus appears to be on the over. Comprehensible verdict when two talent-rich offenses like these meet, each of which stand within the top-six within the PFF energy rating.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Matchup to observe: Cowboys Edge Micah Parsons vs. 49ers LT Trent Williams
Admittedly, this matchup might be wishful considering, as this battle received’t happen typically, given how a lot Parsons strikes alongside the entrance and stunts. However it will likely be must-see TV once they do line up throughout from each other. Williams, a perennial All-Professional, holds the league’s greatest grade at deal with (88.8), whereas Parsons remains to be proving to be practically unblockable, with a 25.7% pass-rush win price that ranks fifth within the NFL.
Fantasy fade: 49ers QB Brock Purdy
PFF’s Steve Palazzolo made a terrific level in the course of the PFF NFL Week 5 Preview present, highlighting Purdy’s turnover luck this season when taking a look at his turnover-worthy performs. Whereas Purdy hasn’t thrown an interception this season, he has a 3.8% turnover-worthy play price, the ninth-highest within the league. The Dallas protection could be very opportunistic, with seven picks — and two extra that had been dropped — in simply 4 video games. If Purdy misses a learn and throws to an beneath defender or fails to test his safety, this may very well be an extended day for the younger passer.
Favourite guess: SF -3.5
It’s laborious to go towards the Niners proper now, as they appear far and away like the perfect group within the NFC. Granted, thus far San Fran hasn’t confronted a troublesome schedule by any means, however they’ve managed to outclass their competitors by a large margin, with a 16.75 common margin of victory. Whereas the Cowboys have had related success, they’re coming off a 28-16 highway loss to the Cardinals, a group the Niners simply beat by practically three scores.
Inexperienced Bay Packers (-1) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Matchup to observe: Raiders Edge Maxx Crosby vs. Packers RT Zach Tom
Crosby, the proprietor of PFF’s single-season pressures file, is off to a different unbelievable begin. By means of 4 video games, Crosby has tallied 30 pressures, probably the most within the league, placing himself on tempo to interrupt his personal file. That might pose an issue for Zach Tom, who was enjoying properly this yr earlier than sustaining a knee damage throughout Week 3. He returned this previous week however struggled to decelerate the Lions, permitting six pressures. If Tom’s knee hinders him transferring ahead, he shall be in bother right here.
Fantasy fade: Packers HB Aaron Jones
Whereas the Raiders do not current a stout matchup towards the run, it’s laborious to belief Jones’ prospects inside this Packers offense proper now. Jones is coping with a hamstring concern that appeared to linger into his return this previous week, however with no stable allotment of touches, there’s no method to know the way a lot it’s affecting him. Moreover, the workload cut up between Jones and A.J. Dillon seems to be to be reaching equilibrium in 2023.
Favourite guess: Below 44.5
The Raiders offense is the large piece that can forestall this complete from reaching over territory. Vegas has failed to achieve 20 factors in each recreation this season and matched up towards a reasonably stable unit just like the Packers, doesn’t appear to be a bounce-back alternative. Pair that with the very fact the Packers have averaged simply 20.6 factors per recreation of their final three, and indicators level to factors being troublesome to return by.