NCAAF Odds, Picks for New Mexico State vs New Mexico

New Mexico State vs New Mexico Odds

It is not the prettiest school soccer slate, however happily for all of us, Charles McNeil as soon as invented the purpose unfold.

Even with a scarcity of marquee matchups, there’s winners to be discovered from midday till midnight that us bettors will take pleasure in sweating similar to each different Saturday in the course of the school soccer season.

That naturally brings us to the Battle of I-25 or the Rio Grande Rivalry between New Mexico and New Mexico State. Nothing embodies this week’s slate greater than this matchup on Mountain West Community, however I will be glued to no matter channel that’s on my tv since I fancy a aspect.

Let’s take a more in-depth take a look at every crew earlier than breaking it down from a betting perspective.

To the shock of many, New Mexico State shockingly discovered its method right into a bowl sport final season (which it received) after a late-season surge to get to seven wins.

Nevertheless, most of that success could be attributed to a really comfortable schedule stuffed with cupcakes, which I am going to contact on later.

Whereas the protection did carry the Aggies all through the 2022 marketing campaign, New Mexico State misplaced an abundance of manufacturing at linebacker and within the secondary. Due to this fact, most predicted a fairly steep drop-off, which we have seen up to now in two video games in opposition to FBS competitors, with Liberty and UMass placing up 33 and 41, respectively.

And it isn’t like these are two of essentially the most prolific offenses within the nation.

Because of the defensive departures, head coach Jerry Kill knew he’d should get extra from his anemic offense in his second season on the helm.

Quarterback Diego Pavia has excellent elusiveness and may get the ball downfield, however he stays far too inconsistent within the accuracy division. He is additionally continued to indicate a propensity for turning the ball over in opposition to FBS competitors, which has put the Aggies in powerful spots the previous two seasons.

I am not anticipating a lot from both aspect of the ball for the Aggies this season in what must be a protracted marketing campaign regardless of a really favorable schedule.

New Mexico head coach Danny Gonzales actually got here into this season on the new seat, because the Lobos proceed to seek out wins arduous to return by. In what some considered as a final ditch Hail Mary, Gonzales introduced in a brand new offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent from UAB.

Happily for Gonzales, Vincent additionally got here together with quarterback Dylan Hopkins, who’s thrown for over 5,000 yards in his four-year profession. Hopkins, who I’ve all the time thought extremely of, serves as a large improve on the quarterback place for a crew that is acquired virtually no manufacturing within the passing sport over the previous few seasons.

Final 12 months, New Mexico completed with the worst passing offense within the nation and has solely eclipsed 20 factors as soon as up to now 22 video games in opposition to FBS foes.

With Hopkins working the run-heavy unfold assault he is already accustomed to, this offense truly has potential, with some intriguing choices on the surface besides.

It is too arduous to inform the place the offense stands after two video games, since one got here in opposition to a clearly superior Texas A&M bunch in a blowout loss and the opposite got here in opposition to an overmatched FCS opponent in a blowout victory.

Regardless, the offense ought to look significantly better than final season, which is not a excessive bar to clear.

Whereas the offense had eight returning starters — plus Hopkins — the protection did not have that very same luxurious headed into the season. With solely two returning starters, this was principally an entire rebuild beneath new defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling.

Dreiling did function an assistant beneath the now-departed Rocky Lengthy, so it ought to no less than be a easy schematic transition with Dreiling sustaining the identical 3-3-5 ideas. Nevertheless, there is definitely going to be some rising pains with model new personnel.

The Lobos will want just a few transfers and freshmen to step up on this aspect of the ball or it might get ugly fast.

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Toggle the dropdowns under to cover or present how New Mexico State and New Mexico match up statistically:

New Mexico State Offense vs. New Mexico Protection

Rush Success	3	97
Line Yards	3	93
Cross Success	71	95
Havoc	57	61
Ending Drives	71	104
High quality Drives	43	103

New Mexico Offense vs. New Mexico State Protection

Rush Success	91	80
Line Yards	94	72
Cross Success	24	121
Havoc	128	84
Ending Drives	39	114
High quality Drives	65	116

Tempo of Play / Different

PFF Tackling	131	49
PFF Protection	129	106
Particular Groups SP+	79	104
Center 8	102	28
Seconds per Play	29.2 (100)	32.7 (130)
Rush Fee	57.9% (28)	58.6% (31)

Sorry if I sound like a damaged file, however we’re fading New Mexico State for a 3rd time this season.

I’ve talked endlessly about how I believed the Aggies got here into the season with an artificially excessive market score because of a largely fraudulent late-season run to get to a bowl, which they received in opposition to an terrible Bowling Inexperienced squad.

Look no additional than the seven opponents they defeated:

• Hawaii
• New Mexico
• UMass
• Lamar
• Liberty
• Valparaiso
• Bowling Inexperienced

That must be the saddest group of wins I’ve ever seen for a bowl crew. Plus, Liberty by no means acquired off the bus after the Hugh Freeze rumors broke, and all of us noticed how that matchup performed out final week. In consequence, the Aggies added a sport in lowly Valpo to achieve bowl eligibility.

Properly, nothing has modified my tune this season up to now, and I do not suppose the market has corrected sufficient but.

New Mexico State did not cowl in opposition to UMass and Liberty whereas placing up massive numbers in opposition to a nasty FCS squad.

That ought to sound acquainted; over the previous two seasons in opposition to FCS groups and the corpse of Liberty, NMSU quarterback Diego Pavia has totaled 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. In all different video games, these numbers drop to eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

This offense stays extraordinarily restricted, particularly from a passing perspective. In the meantime, the protection has taken a monumental step again after dropping key items on the backend.

Whereas I am not keen on New Mexico State’s quarterback play, I do love New Mexico quarterback Hopkins, who brings some precise passing prowess to Albuquerque.

It is value mentioning that New Mexico State head coach Kill won’t be on the sidelines for this sport because of a medical difficulty. That actually throws a wrench into the preparation in per week that additionally featured the Aggies touring again throughout the nation.

It could additionally take away from a few of the consideration offensive coordinator Tim Beck can provide to the sport plan on that aspect of the ball, since he’ll be working the day-to-day operations.

Look, these are two of the worst groups within the nation, however I’ve New Mexico power-rated larger and I stay decrease than the market on New Mexico State. Plus, in what initiatives as an in depth sport, New Mexico ought to have the sting on particular groups, which might make the entire distinction.