NFL Weeks 2 Picks on Chiefs vs Jaguars, Ravens vs Bengals, More

The standard of soccer in Week 1 wasn’t all the time notably excessive, however the NFL produced loads of drama, storylines and narratives to overreact to from the primary of 17 information factors we’ll get on every workforce in the course of the common season.

Now, it is onto our NFL Week 2 picks, which current a handful of betting alternatives — but it surely additionally presents the problem. What’s sign and what’s noise from Week 1? How a lot ought to we regulate our priors on a workforce after their Week 1 displaying?

Within the AFC, 4 of the highest projected groups all underwhelmed expectations because the Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals and Payments all misplaced as favorites this week. That might current some alternatives to purchase low in Week 2.

Right here’s my ideas on all 16 Week 2 NFL video games.

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Thursday Night time Soccer

Vikings vs. Eagles

Our first true quick week of the season presents a very fascinating betting spot. On one hand, the Eagles have been completely outplayed for big stretches of their Week 1 matchup with the Patriots. Primarily based on our personal Motion Community Luck Rankings, the Eagles have been the ‘luckiest’ workforce within the NFL, which means the ultimate rating was essentially the most deceptive of any within the opening week. The Vikings are a serious regression candidate from final 12 months, however the market is effectively conscious of that.

It was Week 2 of final season on Monday Night time Soccer when the Eagles slammed Minnesota as a two-point residence favourite. The Eagles dominated the road of scrimmage on each side of the ball in that matchup, and consequently, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense have been completely stymied. Cousins can be underneath stress loads but once more on Thursday, however the Eagles protection is a little more weak right here.

The Eagles linebacker scenario is dire after Nakobe Dean was dominated out. Each nook James Bradberry and security Reed Blankenship are uncertain and questionable, respectively. With that being stated, will it matter if the Eagles get a ton of stress? I’m not so positive.

It may very well be a tough matchup for Cousins on the street in primetime. The market has moved this by means of the important thing variety of seven from Philly -7.5 to -6.5, however I’d extra possible lay Philadelphia than take the factors whether it is underneath seven. The Eagles offense was dangerous in Week 1, however I’d anticipate extra Dallas Goedert and D’Andre Swift, in addition to much less rust, in Week 2.

Verdict: Lean Eagles -6.5

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The Passes

Raiders vs. Payments

This suits into the Week 1 overreaction pattern completely.

The Raiders coated and received outright as a street underdog in Week 1, whereas the Payments had essentially the most embarrassing lack of the weekend on Monday Night time Soccer after Josh Allen turned the ball over 4 instances. Everyone seems to be down on the Payments now due to Allen’s erratic play, but it surely’s vital to recollect how good Buffalo is as a frontrunner and that Allen struggled in each conferences with the elite Jets protection final season too.

Allen has been significantly extra reckless along with his play for the reason that midway level of final season and that makes Buffalo a extra weak favourite. He has simply 17 touchdowns to 11 interceptions in his final 10 common season video games, and he didn’t precisely play constant soccer in Buffalo’s two playoff video games both. That is nonetheless an elite roster total, albeit the defensive facet didn’t actually get examined on Monday night time towards Zach Wilson.

Jimmy Garappolo very quietly completed Week 1 on a brand new workforce because the No. 1 quarterback by CPOE + EPA composite. And that got here towards a Broncos protection that graded out as a preseason top-five move protection unit within the NFL. There’s been a constant disagreement on Garoppolo amongst the movie nerds and the analytics neighborhood, however his outcomes converse for themselves from final week.

This can be a pure bounce-back spot for the Payments, however I nonetheless have too many questions to put this large of a quantity.

Verdict: Move

Chargers vs. Titans

Everybody fell in love with the Kellen Moore Chargers offensive output on Sunday, however I noticed the identical issues within the passing recreation that existed underneath Joe Lombardi final season. It’s true that the Chargers ran the ball much more and did it efficiently. That they had a 66% success price on dashing makes an attempt, which is bonkers-level effectivity.

We’d like extra of a pattern towards a non-Vic Fangio two-deep model protection earlier than making any actual conclusions. The Chargers ran the ball effectively above expectation on 2nd and lengthy and Justin Herbert’s air yards per try have been additionally not meaningfully completely different from the previous years. If these two proceed, I don’t suppose the Chargers will attain the elite degree of offensive effectivity, however it might not matter towards Tennessee.

On one hand, the Titans are the precise sort of bodily run recreation that might run everywhere in the Chargers and bully them. Then again, Ryan Tannehill is on #WashedWatch following Week 1. I’ve lengthy been a ‘Tannehill is underrated’ particular person, however he completed lifeless final in CPOE + EPA composite and his efficiency didn’t move the attention take a look at on rewatch both.

There’s no method I might lay three on the street with the Chargers, however issues about Tannehill preserve me off Tennessee too.

Verdict: Move (Guess Tennessee at +3.5)

Colts vs. Texans

It’s onerous for me to have a really goal take about Anthony Richardson given how excessive I used to be on him within the pre-draft course of as a high-end expertise. However the Colts have been fairly profitable on early downs towards the Jaguars protection. Richardson has his limitations and Shane Steichen referred to as the sport with coaching wheels on. No actual deep photographs and no throws to the left facet of the sector persistently.

However Richardson didn’t look overwhelmed in any respect, the Colts protection stays a median unit throughout the board they usually took a lead into the fourth quarter regardless of going 1-for-5 on 4th down and developing with zero factors on 5 separate journeys previous midfield.

I’d guess Indianapolis at any canine worth right here (the place the market opened), however as a street favourite, I’ll move on this divisional matchup. It’s an important teaser possibility on both workforce +7.5 too.

Verdict: Move (Guess Indianapolis as an underdog)

49ers vs. Rams

Matt Stafford’s late-down effectivity on Sunday was borderline historic.

The Rams utterly stunk on early downs. They couldn’t run the ball successfully and didn’t have Cooper Kupp. It didn’t matter in any respect. Stafford was in classic kind after which some towards a possibly overrated Seattle protection. If he’s in a position to recreate that magic once more in Week 2 towards an elite Niners protection, I’ll tip my cap.

The NFC West stays cyclical. The 49ers personal the Rams. The Rams personal the Seahawks. The Seahawks personal the Niners. It appears to be in a endless sample, however I concern for the Rams protection making an attempt to cease the Niners on Sunday too.

Verdict: Move; possibly goal some SF alt spreads

Jets vs. Cowboys

What did we actually find out about these two groups in Week 1? Zach Wilson continues to be actually dangerous, the Cowboys move rush continues to be elite and that’s most likely all that can matter come Sunday. The Cowboys eviscerated a equally flawed Giants workforce on Sunday night time, but it surely’s onerous to put 9.5 on a recreation with a complete beneath 40.

The Jets offensive line is kind of mediocre in move safety and Dalvin Cook dinner’s 13 carries for 35 yards aren’t hanging the concern into any protection. Breece Corridor broke a few large runs, however the play-to-play success on the bottom wasn’t actually there. New York received the sport as a result of Josh Allen gave it to them, and Dak Prescott is significantly much less careless with the ball typically.

Wilson can magic up a play or two to get some factors on the board, however the ball-hawking Cowboys protection is bound to bait him into some turnover-worthy performs.

Prescott wasn’t notably good towards the Giants in Week 1, however he additionally wasn’t requested to do a lot. If this line ballooned over 10, I’d maintain my nostril and guess Wilson and the Jets. That will be an overreaction to the Aaron Rodgers damage (lookahead was -3/-3.5).

Verdict: Move (Jets +10.5 or extra is a guess)

Bears vs. Buccaneers

I got here into the season decrease than the market on each groups and didn’t see a lot in Week 1 to alter my opinion of that, regardless of an upset win for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Best move on the board.

Verdict: Move

Giants vs. Cardinals

Daniel Jones will get much more time to throw, and Joshua Dobbs can be underneath fixed duress towards Wink Martindale’s heavy blitz defensive strategy on Sunday. Even with that being stated, the Giants lack of explosive weapons on offense makes them a really weak street favourite right here.

They didn’t actually deal with the obtrusive lack of expertise at receiver within the offseason, and it confirmed towards Dallas. This could be Giants or nothing for the reason that quantity has come down following their embarrassing loss, however I’m in no rush to purchase the Giants but.

Verdict: Move

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The Leans

Commanders vs. Broncos

I’m actually undecided they will set this complete low sufficient after final week’s Arizona/Washington recreation completed with 36 factors together with a defensive rating. Washington’s offense with Sam Howell completed the sport twenty fifth in total effectivity regardless of enjoying the league’s worst workforce. Even in case you take out the defensive landing, the Commanders have been a league-average offense.

Howell took six sacks, had only a 6.5 yards per try and didn’t look the a part of an NFL starter. Russell Wilson performed higher than final 12 months, however the Broncos offense nonetheless critically lacks explosiveness. The 2 main receivers for Denver final week: Adam Trautman and Samaje Perine. It sounds absurd to guess an underneath at 38.5, however Denver goes to play a variety of video games within the teenagers this 12 months once more.

Verdict: Lean Below 38.5 (Guess at 40)

Packers vs. Falcons

Matt LaFleur made life fairly simple for quarterback Jordan Love. The Packers established the run, protected him effectively and LaFleur designed the reads and throws to assist his younger QB. I don’t see a lot on this Atlanta protection to see how they cease the run or stress Love both, so it ought to be one other profitable day for the Packers QB.

That is the actual take a look at for Joe Barry’s protection. We’ve seen groups energy by means of the Packers delicate underbelly on the bottom for years now, and Atlanta is effectively poised to try this. The issue is tempo. Arthur Smith has slowed these video games to a crawl, and that’s scary given Inexperienced Bay’s gradual tempo as effectively.

Verdict: Lean Over 40.5

Dolphins vs. Patriots

Invoice Belichick shut down among the finest offenses within the NFL final week and New England nonetheless misplaced at residence. The Eagles had no solutions for Belichick’s altering defenses they usually had a tough time getting push on the offensive line. Belichick will look to close down one other elite offense on Sunday towards Miami at residence in primetime.

I’m not discounting his skill to do it. The climate seems good for the sport, however the identical changed-up seems that threw off Philadelphia’s offense may very well be replicated to throw off the timing of the Dolphins on Sunday.

Mac Jones performed ‘higher’ on Sunday, however there’s nonetheless a protracted method to go for this offense. Monitor the Patriots offensive line scenario earlier than betting this, however a extra run-heavy strategy from New England (they received’t be down 16-0 within the first quarter once more) and the Belichick defensive masterclass potential leaves this complete too excessive for me.

Verdict: Lean Below 46.5

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The Bets

Seahawks vs. Lions

The roar was restored on Thursday night time within the Lions gorgeous street victory, however I got here away from the sport decrease on Detroit than I used to be previous to kickoff. Our Motion Community luck rankings had them because the second most lucky workforce in Week 1, largely due to a tipped decide six within the second half that utterly turned the tides.

The Seahawks had glorious early down protection earlier than getting uncovered on late downs by some ridiculous play-making from Stafford. That’s unlikely to repeat. The Lions ought to have success pressuring Geno Smith due to the accidents to the Seattle offensive line, however it is a basic Week 1 overreaction line. Seattle misplaced badly as a house favourite. Detroit received as a street underdog. Now the unfold is inflated, and I’ll again the Seahawks.

Browns vs. Steelers

It’s not simple to make the case to again the Steelers right here at residence after the 49ers embarrassed them in Week 1. The Steelers simply misplaced Diontae Johnson and Cameron Heyward to damage, and Heyward is very vital to slowing down the Browns dashing assault. Kenny Pickett seemed inaccurate and inefficient within the Week 1 loss, however the Niners do this to a variety of groups.

I’ll prevent the entire developments on Mike Tomlin off a loss, Mike Tomlin as a house underdog, and so on. They’re all good. Groups who get blown out are inclined to bounce again far as a rule within the subsequent week as effectively. Groups who lose by 17 or extra enjoying a workforce that received by 17 or extra the earlier week are 103-65-4 ATS (61% win price) the following week. No workforce within the NFL is pretty much as good or as dangerous as they seemed the week earlier than. Because of the Week 1 lopsided outcomes, Cleveland is now laying the identical quantity San Francisco did in Pittsburgh final week.

Cleveland is not with out its accidents although as proper sort out Jack Conklin was dominated out for the 12 months. T.J. Watt ought to wreck the Browns offense and wreak havoc within the pocket towards Deshaun Watson, who didn’t look improved a lot in any respect final Sunday.

Purchase low, promote excessive and guess Pittsburgh as a house underdog.

Saints vs. Panthers

Second straight week I’ll be betting towards New Orleans as a brief favourite. The Saints on steadiness deserved to beat Tennessee, but it surely wasn’t simple for them to separate in any respect. Tennessee’s purple zone offense price it the sport on Sunday, however the Saints and Derek Carr seemed precisely as I assumed they might.

Carr isn’t going to alter who he’s at this level in his profession and the Saints venture to be an especially common offense total.

Carr had an especially correct recreation contained in the dome, but it surely’ll be more durable for him to copy that on the street in a divisional primetime recreation. The Panthers protection carried out very well towards a bodily Atlanta offense on Sunday, and Frank Reich has typically adopted up a poor Week 1 displaying with a superb Week 2 displaying 12 months after 12 months in Indianapolis.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars

Kansas Metropolis performed with out its two finest non-QB gamers in Week 1 and nonetheless ought to have overwhelmed Detroit if not for some absurd variance and dropped passes that went towards them. The Chiefs protection could have its all-pro move rusher again within the fold and the offense could have Travis Kelce again within the lineup.

In consequence, I’m going to purchase the Chiefs right here, even in Jacksonville. The Chiefs closed as a 9.5-point favourite at residence on this matchup within the divisional spherical of the playoffs. Not a lot has meaningfully modified now besides residence area, so why is Kansas Metropolis solely laying three?

The Chiefs laying greater than three is a hazard as a result of they like to win shut, they get backdoored typically and don’t run up the rating when main within the fourth. If Mahomes is laying three or fewer and mainly simply must win the sport, he’s a significantly safer guess. The market moved this from -2.5 to -3 off the Jones information, and it won’t be far sufficient.

I actually wouldn’t lay 3.5 right here, however pretty much as good as Trevor Lawrence was at instances towards the Colts, the error performs and dangerous reps got here a bit too steadily for me. His highs are a top-five QB degree, however his consistency isn’t there but. There have been additionally actual holes within the Jaguars protection evident on Sunday that a greater operating again and quarterback would have exploited.

Ravens vs. Bengals

Pretty sure I’ve guess on the Ravens in each matchup towards the Joe Burrow Bengals, anticipate the Week 18 matchup final season. Let’s run it again. Burrow had a few of his worst video games of the 12 months final 12 months towards Mike MacDonald they usually’ve persistently had success in slowing down this offense when all of their corners aren’t injured like the top of the 2021 season.

You’ll be able to equate the Bengals loss on Sunday to rust or typical Bengal Week 1 woes. However don’t anticipate them to only flip the swap. Joe Burrow missed a variety of time in coaching camp and preseason. That is a kind of uncommon video games the place you’d anticipate the market to open extra favorably towards Baltimore after the Ravens received by 10+ and the Bengals misplaced by 10+ in Week 1.

As an alternative, the market has moved this recreation to the purpose the place we now get John Harbaugh catching greater than a area objective. Harbaugh is 18-8-1 ATS as a divisional underdog. Lamar Jackson struggled himself in Week 1 and the damage bug has already bitten Baltimore, however I had virtually no hole between these two groups preseason and may’t get to this worth after Burrow seemed method, method off from an accuracy perspective in Week 1.

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