Stuckey’s Top 7 Betting Spots, Including Texas vs. Alabama & More

Identical to I did all through final faculty soccer season, I’ll share my favourite spots for every week’s video games in 2023.

For reference, final yr’s spots completed a ridiculously unsustainable 45-20-1 (69.2%). I do not assume I will ever repeat that stage of success in a season, however hopefully we will keep away from the regression monster and have one other worthwhile season.

Though, there’ll at all times be tough weeks on this gig, so please wager responsibly. Plus, my major objective is to easily share just a few key angles, notable matchups and damage conditions for every specific sport that hopefully make you a greater bettor.

Take into account the precise unfold worth nonetheless reigns supreme. Regardless of how nice a situational spot seems on paper, I nonetheless must think about how a lot worth the quantity holds in comparison with my projections. A very good or dangerous spot could sway me by hook or by crook on a guess I am on the fence for, nevertheless it’s definitely extra artwork than science.

For Week 2, I’ve highlighted my seven favourite betting spots for Saturday’s faculty soccer slate, beginning with a midday kick adopted by six others in prime time.

All traces referenced are present as of the time of writing, so I additionally included what I might play every all the way down to in your comfort.

• 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 models (69.2%)
• 2023: 0-0-0 +0.00 models

I had questions on each side of the ball for Notre Dame — broad receiver, go rush, and so forth. — coming into the season. Effectively, the Irish have not actually answered any because of no fault of their very own. They simply have not confronted a group with a pulse, having waxed Tennessee State and Navy by a mixed rating of 98-6.

The victory over Navy was definitely spectacular, however the Mids regarded utterly out of kinds underneath new head coach Brian Newberry. Additionally they did not prime seven factors of their season-opener for the fourth straight season, which included a sport in opposition to FCS Delaware final season.

Due to this fact, I did not bump Notre Dame as a lot as possibly others did and see worth within the dwelling canine catching over a landing in opposition to a group that is still unproven in just a few areas.

This sport has much more intrigue as a result of familiarity between Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman and NC State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, who went head-to-head with Hartman 3 times when the signal-caller performed at Wake Forest.

General, Gibson has had a leg up in these earlier matchups with Hartman, who threw an equal variety of touchdowns to interceptions (6:6) and obtained sacked 13 occasions on 156 dropbacks (8.3%). Compared, the sixth-year senior has 110 touchdowns to only 35 interceptions (over a 3:1 ratio) and a 5.8% sack fee in opposition to all different opponents.

Gibson has definitely demonstrated a capability to confuse Hartman, who would not be the primary signal-caller to battle in opposition to a Gibson cease unit. Even Patrick Mahomes had his lowest passing output in opposition to Gibson, then at West Virginia, of any sport he began and completed whereas at Texas Tech.

NC State did have to interchange just a few key defensive starters, however I feel it fared fairly effectively total final week in its street victory at UConn. In the event you take away a 71-yard damaged landing run by Victor Rosa, the Huskies amassed solely 202 whole yards at a median clip of three.8 yards per play.

The offense had its ups and downs within the debut reunion of quarterback Brennan Armstrong and offensive coordinator Robert Anae, however I do not assume they confirmed a lot of the playbook in anticipation of this week’s matchup with Notre Dame.

I consider the Pack knew they may maintain off UConn with their protection and easily needed to get out of dodge with an opening-season win on the street in opposition to a tough opponent — just like final yr in opposition to East Carolina.

Working Armstrong 19 occasions is not a really sustainable mannequin, however I count on the offense to open it up a bit extra this week.

Situationally, the Pack can even profit from two additional days of preparation and relaxation after enjoying on Thursday. Additionally they have two video games of movie on Notre Dame — though I am undecided how a lot they’ll really take away from two blowouts in opposition to overmatched opponents.

In equity, Notre Dame may definitely be significantly better than I’ve it rated proper now, however I will make the Irish show it to me on the street right here.

I did not count on to recover from a landing earlier than the season began, particularly after not studying that a lot about both group but.

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I’ve talked many occasions within the offseason about how I am seeking to fade this New Mexico State group, which I did with its season win whole underneath and in Week 0 in opposition to UMass.

I really believed the Aggies got here into the yr with an artificially excessive market score because of a largely fraudulent late-season run to get to a bowl, which they received in opposition to an terrible Bowling Inexperienced squad.

Look no additional than the seven opponents they defeated:

• Hawaii
• New Mexico
• UMass
• Lamar
• Liberty
• Valparaiso
• Bowling Inexperienced

That must be the saddest group of wins I’ve ever seen for a bowl group. As well, they performed a Liberty group that stop on the season the week after the Hugh Freeze rumors broke. In consequence, the Aggies added a sport with lowly Valpo to succeed in bowl eligibility.

Moreover, over the previous two seasons in opposition to FCS groups and the corpse of Liberty, NMSU quarterback Diego Pavia has totaled 11 touchdowns and no interceptions.

In opposition to all different opponents, these numbers drop to seven touchdowns and eight interceptions.

This offense stays extraordinarily restricted, particularly from a passing perspective. In the meantime, the protection ought to take a step again after dropping key items on the again finish, which UMass totally exploited throughout a 41-point outburst in Las Cruces two weeks in the past.

As I beforehand talked about, one in every of New Mexico State’s victories final yr got here on the street in opposition to the Flames, who merely by no means bothered to get off the bus with the entire off-the-field rumors swirling. In consequence, they have been humiliated, 49-14, in Lynchburg as 24-point favorites.

Effectively, not solely has Liberty had this sport circled all offseason as a possible revenge spot, nevertheless it’s now favored by 14 fewer factors in opposition to a roster that I do not assume has improved since that matchup.

Lastly, I count on a crisper Liberty offense in Week 2 of a brand new scheme underneath head coach Jamey Chadwell, who I extremely respect. Chadwell and his employees even have one additional sport of movie to reference for preparation since New Mexico State has already performed two.

I have never positioned this wager but since I am ready to see if a -10 pops out there however will play it at -11 or higher if not.

I can’t await this one, as I feel it may stay as much as final yr’s thriller in Austin — a sport that Alabama pulled out by one level.

Final week, I really light Texas and guess Alabama. Nonetheless, I got here away way more impressed with the Longhorns.

Sure, Alabama did cowl and dominate statistically, as you’d count on it to do in opposition to a considerably inferior opponent in Center Tennessee. However the Blue Raiders — who I am tremendous low on in comparison with market — made numerous early psychological errors (turnovers, penalties, missed area objectives) that contributed to that sport getting away quick.

Then they really confirmed the flexibility to maneuver the ball a bit (earlier than penalties introduced them again) regardless of a totally overhauled offensive depth chart.

On paper, that is the weakest Tide group Saban has had in fairly a while. There are questions all throughout the roster, beginning with quarterback.

Jalen Milroe carried out effectively with 5 whole touchdowns, however the true take a look at will come this weekend in opposition to a loaded Texas protection that now lastly has the depth and measurement on each side of the ball to compete with the top-tier SEC groups.

My solely concern with the Horns right here is similar one I had coming into their season when considering their ceiling. They’ve a top-five total roster when it comes to expertise, however I nonetheless must see quarterback Quinn Ewers enhance his deep-ball passing, which mainly boils all the way down to his footwork on these makes an attempt.

In 2022, he accomplished solely 29-of-74 passes (39%) that traveled 15-plus yards. That was imagined to be some extent of emphasis in his offseason work, however he went 0-of-7 in that division final Saturday in opposition to Rice. It is a tiny pattern measurement and he would not get the blame for the entire incompletions, however he missed a wide-open Xavier Worthy a few occasions when his mechanics regarded a bit wonky.

His skill to hit just a few downfield photographs is not going to solely result in explosive performs but additionally open up the short-to-intermediate routes. That would very effectively determine the result of this sport.

There definitely will probably be alternatives in opposition to an Alabama secondary that misplaced three starters to the NFL and had one other two endure accidents final week, particularly if the Tide dare him to beat them deep — which I count on early — as TCU efficiently did final yr.

There is not actually a situational angle on this specific sport, as it is best to get each groups’ greatest shot in one of the high-profile video games of the season.

Nonetheless, even with my lingering considerations over Ewers’ footwork, I merely could not go up taking on a landing in a matchup of two groups I at the moment have power-rated very near even.

Bizarre issues occur in Laramie, as Texas Tech discovered in a heartbreaking loss to Wyoming in double additional time after main 17-0 early within the first half.

It is not a great begin to the season for a Purple Raiders group that many revered pundits (and Brett McMurphy) picked to win the Massive 12.

Nonetheless, I am not in a complete panic but.

That was a brutal situational spot to open up a season with Oregon on deck. In the meantime, the Geese completely rolled of their season opener, 81-7, over Portland State, however that is not the first time nor will it’s the final that the Vikings get completely steamrolled.

Whereas it might have prompted some to get overly enthusiastic about Bo Nix season, I do not actually put an excessive amount of weight into the consequence from a sport with a staggering on-field expertise mismatch in opposition to an FCS opponent.

I am shopping for low on Tech at dwelling now {that a} beneficiant 7 (at -115) has popped out there in what some are calling a Tyler Shough revenge sport. The previous Oregon signal-caller ought to have success in opposition to a secondary that also should present me one thing in opposition to high quality competitors earlier than I purchase into vital enchancment in Yr 2 underneath Dan Lanning.

Lastly, for what it is price, I desire to again these Purple Raiders as an underdog (and keep away from them as a favourite) because of head coach Joey McGuire’s proclivity for going for it on fourth down, which will increase variance and may function a possible equalizer each methods.

Texas Tech bounced again simply wonderful the final time it misplaced to a Group of 5 group, which got here means again in 2009 underneath Mike Leach (RIP GOAT).

I count on it to do the identical this season.

Sure, Houston received outright as an underdog in opposition to UTSA final weekend. However I really downgraded the Cougars, who solely had a 22% postgame win expectancy after getting outgained by nearly 100 yards and a 1.5 yards-per-play margin.

They benefited from a 3-0 turnover margin and different Roadrunner miscues on particular groups and within the penalty division, which primarily led to all three scores.

In the meantime, Rice did not look nice final week, however the Owls have been utterly overmatched on the street in opposition to an elite Texas group. That will not be the case this Saturday. Regardless of the mismatch, the Owls nonetheless stayed inside the quantity for these of us who backed them.

Remember that Houston needed to substitute the dynamic duo of quarterback Clayton Tune and broad receiver Tank Dell on offense — each of whom could contribute within the NFL of their rookie seasons.

Plus, the protection misplaced its prime 5 tacklers, together with each prime pass-rushers and a pair of defensive backs who now additionally reside on NFL rosters.

Judging by final week’s 2.7 yards-per-carry output, Houston will actually battle on the bottom once more in 2023. That would play into the palms of the very veteran again finish of Rice’s protection.

On the opposite facet of the ball, new switch quarterback JT Daniels ought to play higher in his second sport in opposition to simpler competitors. Seeing him battle a bit in his first sport together with his fourth completely different college wasn’t too shocking, particularly once you account for the standard of opponent.

Daniels definitely gives a major expertise improve at quarterback for Rice. Even with out him final season, Rice nearly received at Houston in a sport it led halfway by way of the fourth quarter earlier than in the end falling, 34-27, after the Cougars returned a fumble for a landing with underneath 4 minutes remaining.

The Owls nonetheless had two extra possibilities however threw an interception in Houston territory after which noticed the clock hit zeros after driving contained in the 10-yard line.

They’ll draw loads of confidence from that matchup wherein the 2 groups have been solely separated by one yard and 10 seconds of time.

Lastly, Houston has actually struggled as a favourite underneath head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars have typically come out flat in these spots and fall behind early. Effectively, this definitely units up as a possible tremendous sleepy spot.

After surviving in opposition to UTSA final week, Houston should stay targeted and keep away from looking forward to its Massive 12 debut on deck when it hosts nationwide runner-up TCU. In the meantime, I am certain Rice will come out with its hair on fireplace in its dwelling opener in opposition to its intra-city large brother.

You could not actually take a lot from both group’s Week 1 win over an inferior FCS group — though Mississippi State definitely struggled a bit extra early in its opener in opposition to Southeastern Louisiana.

The Bulldogs are a group I had circled as a possible fade candidate early within the season as they transition to a brand new offensive scheme. They will have a way more balanced assault in comparison with the Air Raid system quarterback Will Rogers mastered underneath the late, legendary Mike Leach.

One of many wrinkles that jump-started the offense final week was the utilization of Vanderbilt switch QB Mike Wright’s mobility. He completed with 95 yards speeding on simply 5 carries, however Arizona now is aware of to organize for these packages, eradicating the factor of shock the house group benefited from in its season opener.

Mississippi State additionally has to interchange quite a lot of key defenders, together with first-round cornerback Emmanuel Forbes.

It might actually really feel the results of dropping first-round cornerbacks in back-to-back seasons in opposition to a potent Arizona passing assault, led by quarterback Jayden de Laura and a really gifted broad receiver room.

I count on Arizona to seek out success attacking downfield in opposition to this secondary.

Whereas I had the Bulldogs highlighted as a possible fade candidate, the other is true with Arizona — a program I consider is on the rise in head coach Jedd Fisch’s second yr.

Due to this fact, this matchup presents the right “purchase” alternative on a street canine that would doubtlessly catch Mississippi State looking forward to a showdown with LSU subsequent week.

I want to apologize prematurely to anyone who finally ends up tailing this guess. The Kats did get to the window for us as 20-point canines at BYU, nevertheless it felt like pulling tooth in one of many ugliest faculty soccer video games I’ve ever watched — and I’ve watched lots.

Coming into the season, I assumed I might be backing Sam Houston just a few occasions early within the season after it sat quite a lot of its greatest gamers for many or all of final yr in preparation for its inaugural FBS season. You mainly needed to discard loads of what we noticed final yr, which definitely creates an abundance of uncertainty once you’re already coping with a former FCS group making the soar.

Effectively, the protection lived as much as my higher-than-market expectations, holding BYU to 4.4 yards per go and three.3 yards per rush. That is excellent.

Nonetheless, whereas the protection did its job, holding the Cougars to only 14 factors within the Provo altitude, the offense vomited all around the area.

That facet of the ball undoubtedly had extra considerations coming into the season, and quarterback Keegan Shoemaker did nothing to alleviate these considerations. The senior signal-caller completed an abysmal 18-of-33 for 147 yards with zero touchdowns and three picks. Yikes.

I am undecided why legendary head coach Okay.C. Keeler by no means gave former North Texas and Arizona switch Grant Gunnell a shot underneath middle, particularly after getting an “OR” designation on the depth chart for that sport. Perhaps that is an ominous signal that Gunnell has regarded terrible in camp, however the competitors was reportedly neck-and-neck.

I can not think about how he may play a lot worse than Shoemaker, so there’s some upside this week with Shoemaker both enjoying higher or Gunnell — who has extra uncooked expertise — getting reps.

Regardless, I haven’t got a lot confidence within the offense, however I nonetheless did not hesitate to guess the Bearkats at +14.5 in a sport I mission proper round 10.

That is nonetheless an Air Pressure group that runs a triple-option offense, which makes overlaying over two touchdowns a laborious chore since possessions will probably be restricted. That is much more true this season with the brand new clock guidelines, which have the biggest impression on run-heavy offenses that grind their means down the sector on the bottom.

I will gladly take over two touchdowns with the canine making its FBS dwelling debut in a sport with a complete of 37.5.

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