3 Picks for Illinois vs. Kansas, Arizona vs. Mississippi State

Week 1 is within the rearview mirror, and what per week it was. With a top-10 matchup on Monday and two new FBS coaches scoring main upsets on Saturday, it was undoubtedly per week to recollect — and hopefully you cashed some tickets alongside the best way.

However now, it is time to refocus. Week 2 is right here, and there are many bets to be made earlier than strains transfer.

The market clearly strikes quite a bit over the course of the week. Cash pours from the time strains open till kickoff on Saturday. Like another sport, it is paramount to get the very best worth attainable when betting on faculty soccer.

For instance, a -6.5 favourite may transfer to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you definately run the chance of that crew profitable by some of the probably outcomes — a seven-point victory — and also you simply misplaced your guess. It occurs each week.

However that mess may have been averted if the guess was locked in at -6.5 on Monday morning.

I am right here that will help you navigate the market by offering just a few strains I am shopping for proper now — or different strains that I am ready to purchase later within the week.

The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the very best worth attainable, and in the long term, prevent some cash with closing line worth. To do this, we’ll make the most of our Motion Community PRO projections, ESPN’s SP+ and my very own projections to create a consensus.

You hear on a regular basis, “Course of over outcomes.” One of the best ways to know if the method is working is by closing line worth (CLV), that means what number of factors did you beat the closing line by? Nicely, I am right here that will help you hopefully get essentially the most CLV attainable early on within the week so that you’re sitting in an important place by the point we attain Saturday.

Kansas took care of enterprise towards Missouri State in its season opener, whereas Illinois barely survived towards Toledo.

The Kansas offense goes to as soon as once more be electrical, however Jalon Daniels missed the opener with a again damage. The expectation on the time of writing that is that he’ll go well with up, but it surely’s unsure if he will probably be 100% wholesome.

The Jayhawks return a whopping 10 starters on offense with the one starter misplaced being on the offensive line.

Final season, this offense was the very best within the nation in EPA/Play and ranked third in explosiveness.

Daniels is now extraordinarily snug in an Andy Kotelnicki offense that is very tough to organize for given the quantity of movement and formations he throws at opponents.

Daniels posted an 80.4 PFF passing grade final season because the Jayhawks led the nation in EPA/Move final season. Whereas Daniels is a dynamic runner, he wasn’t that efficient over the second half of the season. Now with a again damage, it’s a must to ask how efficient he’ll be as a runner on this recreation or if we’ll see some motion from backup Jason Bean.

Picture through PFF.

Illinois misplaced defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, who grew to become the pinnacle coach at Purdue, however Aaron Henry was promoted from defensive backs coach so there will not be an excessive amount of of a change to the system.

The Illini returned solely six starters on protection, and it confirmed within the opener towards Toledo as they gave up over 400 yards. Nevertheless, Toledo did run 79 performs, which suggests Illinois gave up 5.3 yards per play, so it is not as dangerous because it appears.

Plus, this is similar protection that ranked No. 1 within the nation in Ending Drives Allowed final season.

Illinois is stacked within the entrance seven, bringing again its high two defensive linemen, Jer’Zhan Newton, who was a first-team All-American a season in the past after posting a 91.9 run protection grade with 36 quarterback hurries.

The issue for Illinois is it loses three starters within the secondary who’re all within the NFL, so Daniels must beat the Illini by means of the air.

On the offensive aspect for Illinois, Bret Bielema went out and introduced in quarterback switch Luke Altmyer from Ole Miss. Altmyer had an honest recreation within the opener, going 18-for-26 for 206 yards and two touchdowns. He additionally ran for 76 yards on 5 makes an attempt.

Altmyer was a four-star recruit popping out of highschool and had beforehand performed in just one faculty recreation — the 2021 Sugar Bowl, the place he struggled. Nevertheless, Matt Corral determined to play within the bowl recreation after an unbelievable season and bought harm within the first quarter, so it was a very tough spot for Altmyer to step into.

Bielema’s offense is constructed on working the soccer, although. Illinois ran the ball at a 56.7% clip final season, which held true within the first recreation because it ran on 57% of its 61 performs and averaged 4.7 yards per carry.

Chase Brown has moved on, however Reggie Love III proved to be superb in a backup function. He had a 84.8 PFF dashing grade, averaged 4.6 yards per carry and compelled a whopping 25 tackles On 72 carries final season.

Illinois has two NFL-caliber offensive linemen, so it should not drop off a ton within the run recreation.

The actual handicap of this recreation is fading the Kansas protection, which goes to be horrible. Missouri State did not do a lot towards the Jayhawks within the opener, however the Bears solely ran 45 performs.

Seven starters return to a protection that allowed 6.3 yards per play. KU ranked a hundred and twentieth in Success Charge Allowed, 123rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 131st in Havoc. Anyone with an honest offensive line can dominate Kansas up entrance, because the Jayhawks completed the season ranked one hundred and twenty fifth in Stuff Charge, 123rd in Defensive Line Yards and 123rd in EPA/Rush Allowed.

Illinois ought to be capable to run at will towards them.

All three projection fashions are displaying worth on Illinois, so I like the worth on the Illini at +3.5 and would play them to +3.

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Western Michigan is present process a regime change after hiring Louisville offensive coordinator Lance Taylor as their new head coach.

Louisville was a run-heavy offense as a result of it had top-of-the-line working quarterbacks in faculty soccer in Malik Cunningham. Taylor introduced over Hayden Wolff from Previous Dominion through the switch portal, however I am undecided that is an improve.

Wolff put up a PFF passing grade of simply 64.9 with a 66.7% adjusted completion proportion. He likes to throw the ball deep with virtually 50% of his passes going 10 yards. He did find yourself with 26 big-time throws, which is spectacular — however not while you think about that he had 22 turnover-worthy performs on the similar time.

Western Michigan returns eight starters again on the offense, however high working again Sean Tyler hit the switch portal and landed at Minnesota. He was the one vibrant spot from a dashing assault that averaged simply 3.5 yards per carry and ranked 129th in Speeding Success Charge.

Syracuse did one factor at an elite degree defensively final yr: restrict huge performs. The Orange had been the No. 1 crew within the nation in explosiveness allowed, which allowed them to rank inside the highest 30 in EPA/Play Allowed.

They shut Colgate out of their opener and gave up simply 1.8 yards per carry.

Seven starters return defensively, together with seven of their high eight tacklers from final season, so they need to haven’t any points shutting down Western Michigan’s offense.

Garrett Shrader returns at quarterback for the Orange after a really up-and-down season. He completed with an 80.2 PFF passing grade whereas averaging 8.2 yards per try with 22 big-time throws.

As you possibly can see with Shrader, the vary of outcomes may be fairly giant, however he did mild up lesser competitors for essentially the most half.

Picture through PFF.

Shrader will get his high goal again in tight finish Oronde Gadsden II after he almost broke the 1,000-yard receiving mark final season. Gadsden recorded an 82.7 PFF receiving grade, which was the seventh-best amongst tight ends who generated over 40 targets final season.

All-American working again Sean Tucker is gone, that means backup LeQuint Allen will take over because the starter. In a really small pattern measurement, Allen proved to be a really efficient runner by averaging a whopping 6.7 yards per stick with it 41 carries.

Western Michigan goes by means of a complete rebuild defensively. The Broncos return two starters after boasting one of many higher defenses within the MAC.

They introduced in a few Energy 5 transfers who barely performed at their earlier faculty, however this protection goes to undergo some rising pains after shedding their high seven tacklers from final season.

All three projection fashions have Syracuse projected north of -23, so I might seize the lone -20.5 on the market, which remains to be obtainable at BetMGM as of writing.

Mississippi State goes by means of a transition interval on the offensive aspect of the ball. The Bulldogs are going to have a extra balanced assault versus the late Mike Leach’s Air Raid.

Offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay comes over from Appalachian State, the place he had a run fee over 55%. It will likely be a brand new system for quarterback Will Rogers, however which will truly be a profit.

Rogers posted a 72.5 PFF passing grade final yr however threw the ball 40-plus occasions a recreation. In the meantime, Barbay’s App State offense final season ranked top-25 in Speeding Success Charge and EPA/Rush.

High working again Jo’Quavious Marks returns after averaging 5.2 yards per carry and serving to Mississippi State rank within the high 50 in Speeding Success Charge final yr.

Along with Marks coming again, 113 begins return on the offensive line. So though this offense will look completely different, it needs to be fairly strong.

Arizona could not cease anyone final season. The Wildcats allowed 6.5 yards per play whereas rating a hundred and thirtieth in Success Charge Allowed, 129th in EPA/Play Allowed and 123rd in Ending Drives Allowed.

The Wildcats carry again solely three starters on protection, and although they introduced in just a few transfers of their entrance seven, I do not understand how they’ll cease Mississippi State’s offense.

Jayden de Laura is again at quarterback for Arizona and nonetheless stays extraordinarily risky. He had 29 whole touchdowns final yr however threw 13 interceptions and fumbled 13 occasions. He actually struggled towards Mississippi State final season, going 23-for-45 for 220 yards with three interceptions.

de Laura did common 8.4 yards per try, however he put up a PFF passing grade of simply 72.7 due to the entire turnovers.

Seven different starters return on the offense with de Laura getting most of his skill-position weapons again. High again Michael Wiley, who averaged a whopping 6.8 yards per carry, returns alongside 5 of the highest six pass-catchers.

The one downside with the offense is it brings again solely three starters on an offensive line that actually struggled and ranked outdoors the highest 70 in each PFF run-blocking and pass-blocking grades.

Zach Arnett turned Mississippi State right into a formidable protection final yr, because the Bulldogs completed top-40 in Success Charge Allowed, EPA/Play Allowed and Ending Drives Allowed. They return solely 4 starters, however their high three tacklers and most skilled defenders are again ,which is large when there are a variety of new faces.

All three projection fashions have Mississippi State north of -12, so I would seize the Bulldogs now at -9 and would play them as much as -10.

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