2023 Season-Long Props for Dak Prescott, Travis Etienne, 8 More

Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon laid out their favourite season-long NFL participant props on the Motion Community Podcast. For his or her full breakdowns, subscribe beneath. All of those picks can be found at DraftKings.

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Raybon: Robinson is an early-down working again on a projected last-place crew that has a 6.5 win complete.

Right here’s how Robinson ranked as a rookie in some key classes:

• forty eighth out of 60 in yards after contact per try
• fiftieth out of 60 in yards per carry
• fiftieth out of 60 in breakaway proportion at 15.9%

New Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has by no means ranked greater than twentieth in rush makes an attempt. He additionally benched Clyde Edwards-Helaire halfway by final season.

I’d wager this one right down to 700.5.

Koerner: I went again and checked out final 12 months’s season-long participant props, and many of the rushing-yard totals for RBs went underneath. In reality, in the event you wager the underneath on all of them, you’ll’ve hit about 60% of your bets. For those who focused RBs who did not have a assured position as a bellcow, unders had been 10-2.

White is strictly the kind of RB the place that rule may apply. He is a lock to be the Bucs’ Week 1 workhorse, however something can occur past that.

White struggled as a runner in his rookie season, rating fiftieth out of 58 certified RBs in prevented sort out fee, 53rd in explosive run fee and 56th in yards after contact per rush. The Buccaneers offensive line shall be one of many worst within the league and simply misplaced heart Ryan Jensen for the season.

White’s greatest attribute is his pass-catching ability, which can be how Tampa Bay leans on him. I may see the likes of Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Chase Edmonds or Sean Tucker eat into his early-down position finally.

There are sufficient pink flags round White, particularly on this market, that I feel his median needs to be decrease.

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Raybon: Prescott’s profession interception fee of two% would wish 650 cross makes an attempt to succeed in this, and his profession excessive is 596. He’s additionally missed 17 video games over the previous three seasons.

Prescott has 65 profession interceptions in 97 profession begins. That’s 0.67 per sport. At that fee, he’d must play 19.4 video games to succeed in 13 interceptions and 17.9 video games to succeed in 12 interceptions.

I’d wager this one right down to 11.5.

Koerner: Hodgins changed into one of many Giants’ high receivers within the second half of final season as a result of New York had no extra receivers left and he did play very well.

The chance will not be there this 12 months, although. Parris Campbell and rookie Jaylin Hyatt had been added, whereas Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson will get snaps once they’re wholesome. Extra importantly, tight finish Darren Waller seems to be like he’ll be Daniel Jones’ No. 1 goal.

Hodgins additionally benefited from an 82% catch fee final season. Primarily based on his 9.3 Common Depth of Goal, I would count on that to be nearer to 67-70%.

Hodgins may have a full-time position in Week 1, however it will be robust for him to get sufficient snaps and targets on this offense, which leans towards the run anyway.

I am projecting Hodgins for 450.5 receiving yards this season, however this can be a prop the place there are fairly a couple of “outs” for the underneath to hit.

Raybon: Schultz solely performed 66% of snaps with the Texans starters in preseason. He’s performed 81% of snaps over the past three years with the Cowboys. Additionally, Schultz has an uninspiring 7.0 profession Common Depth of Goal.

Koerner: Harris cleared this quantity in every of his first two seasons, throughout which he did not miss a single sport. That is one thing that shall be laborious for a working again to do for a 3rd straight season.

The principle risk to Harris not clearing this complete is backup Jaylen Warren, who began to eat into Harris’ receiving workload final season. All indicators are pointing to extra early-down work for Warren this 12 months, as effectively. Here is how the 2 in contrast final season:

• Prevented tackles: Harris twenty first, Warren eighth
• Explosive run fee: Harris fiftieth, Warren ninth
• Yards after contact per try: Harris forty third, Warren twenty first

The specter of Warren offers Harris a decrease ground than he is had in both of his first two seasons, one thing that gives an extra “out” for the underneath right here.

Raybon: Mostert is in his age-31 season and has missed 26 video games over the past three seasons.

Mostert additionally going to be in a three-way working again by committee sooner or later since he bought much less assured cash ($2 million) than Jeff Wilson Jr. ($2.6 million), and DeVon Achane was drafted 84th total.

Additionally, because the finish of final season, the Dolphins have pursued De’Andre Swift, Dalvin Cook dinner and now Jonathan Taylor. Chances are high Miami acquires a working again sooner or later this season.

I’d wager this right down to 500.5

Koerner: Chark has a variety of outcomes as a result of he is a downfield risk. He had an Common Depth of Goal of 15.4 final season, and the idea is Carolina introduced him in so he may fill the same position this season.

Nevertheless, Chark is not a terrific match with Bryce Younger, whose major weak spot is perhaps his downfield accuracy. Younger had the second-most time to throw in all of Division I final season on cross makes an attempt of 20 or extra yards down the sphere, and he will not have that luxurious this season in Carolina.

I feel Younger’s high targets shall be Adam Thielen and finally rookie Jonathan Mingo. Chark may have spiked weeks, however that is the best market to fade him.

Plus, Chark has missed a handful of video games in 4 of his 5 NFL seasons and is already coping with a hamstring harm. If he does not swimsuit up for Week 1, this wager shall be voided, however I do not assume that is a motive to not take it. Fairly the alternative, since he is more likely to be restricted in Week 1 if he fits up. It is also the sort of harm that might linger all through the common season.

That is precisely the sort of wager I need to lock in proper now. It was 48.5 receptions final week and is already dropping.

Raybon: In 4 profession seasons, Sanders has scored seven or extra touchdowns. That got here final season in Philadelphia, the place the Eagles offense was third within the NFL in factors and rush makes an attempt and first in dashing touchdowns.

That’s not going to be the case this 12 months in Carolina. The Panthers offensive line, which has been struggling all through coaching camp, is an enormous downgrade from the Eagles’ unit.

Sanders has additionally missed 9 video games over the past three seasons and has been coping with a nagging hamstring harm all through coaching camp.

Koerner: Etienne deserves this excessive complete, however he has a couple of issues going in opposition to him.

Firstly, the Jaguars offensive line had the second-lowest run-blocking grade final season, based on Professional Soccer Focus. Etienne overcame that final season, as my anticipated yards per try mannequin had him round 4.6 yards per try in comparison with the 5.1 he averaged. It is unlikely he overcomes that once more this season.

Secondly, the Jaguars will face extra defenses this season which can be robust in opposition to the run. Jacksonville had a top-10 best schedule final season, nevertheless it’s a top-10 hardest this 12 months.

Lastly, the Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby within the third spherical. He profiles extra as an early-down again and primarily based on his preseason utilization, Bigsby might be mixing in fairly a bit on early downs. He seems to be nice to this point. Etienne was on the sphere all third and fourth downs, so he’ll be concerned within the passing sport.

Etienne is one other RB who has sufficient issues that his median dashing complete needs to be a bit decrease.